Bayesian Statistics

Bayesian statistics is a branch of statistics that involves using probability theory to infer and update beliefs about uncertain events or parameters. Bayesian statistics provides a framework for modeling uncertainty and allows for the incorporation of prior knowledge into statistical analyses.

In Bayesian statistics, a prior probability distribution is specified based on prior knowledge or beliefs about the parameter of interest. This prior distribution is then updated using observed data, resulting in a posterior distribution that reflects the updated beliefs about the parameter.

Bayesian statistics can be used for a wide range of statistical analyses, including hypothesis testing, parameter estimation, and model selection. It can also be used in complex modeling situations where traditional statistical techniques may be inadequate.

One of the main advantages of Bayesian statistics is its ability to handle small sample sizes and complex data structures. Bayesian statistics also provides a natural framework for incorporating expert knowledge and external data sources into statistical analyses.

Bayesian statistics is widely used in various fields such as finance, engineering, and medicine. It is also commonly used in machine learning and artificial intelligence applications, such as Bayesian networks and Bayesian optimization.

Python

import pymc3 as pm
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

# Define the prior distribution
with pm.Model() as model:
    parameter = pm.Beta('parameter', alpha=2, beta=2)
    
# Generate some fake data
np.random.seed(42)
data = np.random.binomial(1, parameter, size=100)
    
# Update the prior distribution with the observed data
with model:
    trace = pm.sample(1000, tune=1000)
    
# Plot the posterior distribution
pm.plot_posterior(trace['parameter'])
plt.show()

R

library(rstan)
library(ggplot2)

# Define the prior distribution
model <- "
data {
  int<lower=0> N;
  int<lower=0, upper=1> data[N];
}

parameters {
  real<lower=0, upper=1> parameter;
}

model {
  parameter ~ beta(2, 2);
  data ~ bernoulli(parameter);
}
"

# Generate some fake data
set.seed(42)
data <- rbinom(100, 1, 0.5)

# Compile the model
stan_model <- stan_model(model_code = model)

# Update the prior distribution with the observed data
stan_fit <- sampling(stan_model, data = list(N = length(data), data = data), 
                      iter = 1000, warmup = 1000)

# Plot the posterior distribution
plot(stan_fit, pars = "parameter")

# Alternatively, use ggplot2
ggplot(as.data.frame(stan_fit)) +
  geom_density(aes(x = parameter))